The 30 year average hit its highest since July 2025, and buyers did not leave

The week in rates

The 30 and 15 year numbers come from Freddie Mac's weekly survey, which averages the rates on home purchase applications that lenders across the country submit to Freddie Mac. The survey looks at one kind of borrower. That borrower is buying a home with 20 percent down and excellent credit. The loan is not backed by a government program such as FHA or VA, and it is within the standard loan size limit. Your own rate depends on your credit, your down payment, the size of your loan and more. Use these as a read on the market, not as the rate you should expect.

The 10 year Treasury yield is the return investors get on 10 year US government bonds. Mortgage rates tend to rise and fall with it, which is why it is worth watching.

The 10 year Treasury was at 4.79 percent on September 2, against 4.66 the same day a week earlier. It climbed to get there: 4.67 on August 27, 4.73 on August 28 and 4.75 on August 31, then 4.79 on both September 1 and September 2, the highest since January 13 2025. The 10 year rose 0.13 percentage points while the 30 year survey average rose 0.05, so the gap between them narrowed.

The prime rate, which home equity lines follow

I do not publish an average rate for home equity loans or home equity lines of credit. Each lender prices them differently, and published averages disagree by close to a full percentage point depending on the borrower they assume. The prime rate is different. It is one published benchmark, the rate posted by most of the largest US banks, and most home equity lines are priced from it.

Home equity lines of credit are usually priced at prime plus an amount the lender adds, so when the Fed moves and prime follows, most line of credit rates move with it. The rate on a fixed rate home equity loan you already have does not change at all. The amount a lender adds on top of prime varies, and the only honest way to know yours is to have a lender work up the numbers on your own loan.

Who applied for mortgages

The Mortgage Bankers Association tracks mortgage applications every week through a survey of lenders. Most of these numbers are shown after adjusting for normal seasonal swings, like slower holiday weeks. That makes one week fairer to compare with the next.

How households are doing

These numbers change slowly. They show how much equity, debt and savings American households have, which shapes what options make sense for a homeowner. Each one shows its own date because they are updated on different schedules.

For loan officers

This part is written for loan officers. If you own a home or are buying one, it is still worth reading, because it shows the kind of conversation a good loan officer should be having with you.

• Two report days to plan around, and the first is Friday

  Take these in the order they arrive. The August jobs report comes out Friday September 4 at 8:30 Eastern. The consumer price index for August, a main inflation report, comes out Friday September 11, five days before the Fed decides, and after this week it may carry more weight in that decision than the jobs report.

  Here is how we got here. Fed chair Kevin Warsh gave the Jackson Hole keynote on August 28, published on the Federal Reserve's own website under the title In Our Time. He called the Fed's 2 percent inflation goal a firm and fixed target and pointed to the Fed's preferred inflation measure running 3.7 percent over twelve months and 4.1 percent over six. Market pricing, meaning the odds traders put on it, put the chance of a September rate increase at about 60 percent that day and near 66 percent by August 31. Then on September 3, in remarks reported that day by CNBC and others, Fed governor Christopher Waller said he could support holding off for one meeting, depending on what the August inflation report shows, and the odds fell back to roughly 55 percent. Treat the Waller reporting as news reports rather than a transcript, and do not quote him to a client.

  So the instruction is simple. Before Friday morning, call every client with a loan in process who has not locked their rate, following your compliance team's rules for contacting applicants. Do not wait for September 11, because the jobs report on Friday September 4 comes first. Then do it again the following week, remembering Monday September 7 is Labor Day and the bond market is closed, which makes that week shorter than it looks. Keep the message to one sentence that does not promise more than a lock delivers: locking protects today's pricing for a set number of days, waiting is a bet on data none of us have seen, and I am not going to guess it for you. Some clients will choose to wait, which is fine as long as it is a real choice. What you cannot afford is a borrower who finds out Friday that nobody called them Thursday.

• The lists to pull this week, and the message to send with them

  Applications to buy a home rose 2 percent last week after seasonal adjustment, while refinance applications went the other way, down 1 percent for the week and 19 percent below a year ago, with refinances down to 41.8 percent of all applications. That split fits a picture of rate driven refinances thinning out while buyers hold steady, but stop there, because the survey counts applications, not reasons.

  Now the work. Pull the lists Friday September 4 and work them Tuesday September 8, since Monday September 7 is Labor Day. First, every buyer you preapproved in the last 120 days who has not yet signed a purchase contract, oldest first. A preapproval is the letter you gave them after checking their credit, income and savings, saying what they could likely borrow. They are still shopping, their preapproval letters are getting old, and most have not heard from you since the letter went out. Second, every borrower you preapproved this spring who went quiet after a conversation about rates, which you can find in your own notes without going anywhere near anyone's credit file. They made a decision based on where they assumed rates were headed, and this week is a fair moment to ask whether that assumption still holds, not to tell them it does not. Check with your compliance team before you contact either list, because contacting past applicants can fall under Do Not Call and similar rules, and how long ago they applied can matter.

  For your real estate agents, send one message rather than a chart: national applications to buy a home rose 2 percent last week after seasonal adjustment, even as the survey average reached its highest since July 2025, so one week of data suggests buyers have not pulled back, though one week is a direction, not a verdict. Then offer to walk through the affordability calculator with them instead of sending anything else, and use a real buyer's numbers only with that buyer's permission.

  The survey average named here is a published national average. It is not an offer, a quote, or a rate anyone is being offered.

• Someone is going to ask you about an adjustable rate mortgage this week

  Adjustable rate loans, where the rate is fixed for an opening period and then can change, reached 8 percent of applications last week, the highest in five weeks. That means it has been higher before, so it is worth watching, not calling a trend.

  The line that decides most of these conversations is this one: a client who says they will probably move, but has no actual reason to, is really telling you they hope rates fall. That is the same bet as waiting to lock, with a loan attached. Say that plainly and early.

  Then compare honestly, because this is where it usually goes wrong. In the week ending August 21, the Mortgage Bankers Association put the average rate on a 30 year fixed loan within the standard size limit at 6.78 percent with 0.66 points, and on a 5/1 adjustable at 5.98 percent with 0.88 points. Points are upfront fees paid at closing, including origination fees, and one point equals 1 percent of the loan amount. Both are national averages of what applicants actually did, and neither is an offer to anybody. If you quote the gap between those two rates without saying the adjustable carries more points, you have shown the borrower a bigger advantage than the one that exists.

  On how they work, do not teach the old version. A 5/1 is fixed for five years and then adjusts once a year, but many adjustable loans made today are 5/6, which adjust every six months, so confirm which one you are quoting. After the fixed period, the rate is set by an index, a published benchmark that moves with the market, plus a margin, a fixed amount the lender adds on top that does not change. Get all three caps in writing: the limit on the first adjustment, the limit on each adjustment after that, and the limit over the life of the loan. The middle one controls every rate change after the first, and it is the one most often skipped. Then ask the question that decides it: what is the plan if they still own the house when it adjusts? If they cannot answer that, the answer is the fixed loan, and you should be the one to say so.

  None of the rates named here is an offer, a quote, or a rate anyone is being offered.

• Retirement accounts are being tapped while home equity sits unused

  This idea has run here before. It is back because Fidelity released new retirement account numbers on September 3. The average 401k balance hit a record $155,800 in the second quarter, up 13.1 percent from a year earlier. But more people are also pulling money out: the share taking a hardship withdrawal rose to 3 percent from 2.6 percent a year ago, 2.8 percent took a new loan against their plan in the quarter, and 19.5 percent have a loan outstanding.

  Set that beside the household numbers above. ICE counts $11.7 trillion in home equity that homeowners could borrow against, about 1 percent more than a year earlier. The New York Fed counts $1.26 trillion in credit card balances, though not all of it is charged interest, and the average card rate was 20.94 percent in the Federal Reserve's May reading, which is a national average and not a rate being offered to anyone. These are often the same households. Someone in your client list may be deciding this month between pulling from a retirement account and borrowing against the house, and nobody has laid the two options side by side for them.

  That call does not depend on what rates do. Go to your own notes and find clients who asked you in the last six months about paying down debt or covering a large expense, rather than mining application data or anyone's money trouble for a marketing list. Check with your compliance department before you contact anyone on that list, because contacting past clients can fall under Do Not Call and similar rules, and how you use their information is a question for compliance, not for a website. Then run their real numbers in the home equity loan comparison and put both costs on the table, not just one. Borrowing against the house ties the debt to the home, so if the payments stop, the lender can foreclose. It can also stretch a balance they would have paid off in three years across a much longer loan, which lowers the monthly cost and can raise the total. A hardship withdrawal is generally taxed as income and can carry a 10 percent early withdrawal penalty, which is a question for their tax advisor and plan administrator, not for you or me. Say all of it. Some of them should do neither, and you should be the one who says that too.

What to watch next

Three dates could move rates, and the first is Friday September 4. The August jobs report comes out that morning at 8:30 Eastern from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The August consumer price index, a main inflation report, comes out Friday September 11 at 8:30 Eastern. After remarks this week from Fed governor Christopher Waller, as reported, that inflation report may carry more weight in the Fed's decision than the jobs report. The Fed then meets September 15 and 16 and announces its decision Wednesday September 16, along with its members' new forecasts for the economy and for the Fed's own benchmark interest rate. Those forecasts matter because they show where the Fed thinks it is heading after this meeting, not just what it did at this one.

One more date that is not a report: Monday September 7 is Labor Day and the bond market is closed, so the week of the inflation report is a short one. Market pricing, meaning the odds traders put on a Fed increase, has moved between roughly 55 and 66 percent in the last six days and will likely move again on both report days. Loan officers, check current pricing before your calls on each of the three dates, and do not assume the odds from earlier in the week still hold on Friday.