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Market Brief Issue 6Week of September 21, 2026

Mortgage rates crossed 7 percent for the first time since January 2025

Written for Thursday September 24, 2026. Released Friday October 2, 2026 after a publishing delay. Every figure on this page, and every mention of this week or next week, is as of Thursday September 24, 2026. Newer numbers have been published since, so check current figures before acting on anything here

These are published national benchmark and average rates from the dated sources on this page. They are not an offer, not a quote, and not a rate anyone is being offered by anyone, including me.

The average 30 year fixed rate crossed 7 percent this week. Freddie Mac's weekly survey puts it at 7.03 percent, up from 6.95 percent last week. It is the first week at or above 7 percent since January 2025. The 15 year average rose to 6.42 percent from 6.26 percent, its highest since May 2024. A year ago the 30 year average was 6.30 percent, so rates are about 0.73 percentage points higher than last September. Every rate named here is a published national average or benchmark from the dated sources on this page. None of them is an offer, a quote, or a rate anyone is being offered.

This week's rise was smaller than last week's: 0.08 percentage points, against 0.19 the week before. But 7 is a number people notice, and you will see it in headlines this week. You will also see a few different 30 year averages on this page. They come from two surveys and different weeks, and the headline number is 7.03.

The driver is the same as last week. The 10 year Treasury, a government bond yield that mortgage rates tend to follow, reached 5.11 percent on Wednesday September 23. That is its highest level since July 2007. The Fed did not meet this week, and it does not set mortgage rates directly, but expectations about its next moves are part of what moves bond yields.

Fewer people applied for mortgages again. Total applications fell 1.5 percent for the week, buying applications fell 1 percent, and refinance applications fell 3 percent, all after adjusting for normal seasonal swings. One number went the other way. More people are asking about adjustable rate loans, which rose to 9.8 percent of applications from 8.4 percent.

What to do this week if you own a home or are buying one

If you have applied for a mortgage and have not locked your rate, call your loan officer this week. Locking means the lender agrees to hold your rate for a set number of days while your loan closes. The average has gone from 6.76 percent to 7.03 percent in two weeks. Ask what it costs to lock today, and ask in dollars what it would cost to extend the lock if your closing slips.

If you are only shopping, do not treat 7.03 percent as your number. Freddie Mac's average describes borrowers with excellent credit, 20 percent down, and a conventional loan of standard size, meaning one not backed by a government program and inside the usual size limit. Your own rate depends on your credit, your down payment, the size of your loan, and the property. A useful exercise is to run your own loan amount in the mortgage payment calculator at 6.76 percent and again at 7.03 percent. The gap is what two weeks of this market looks like on a loan your size.

If someone suggests an adjustable rate loan, it is a fair question to ask about, but ask the right questions. How many years is the starting rate fixed? How often can it change after that, and by how much at most? What is the highest it could ever go? An adjustable loan is only a good fit if you could live with the payment at that highest rate. Do not take one on the assumption that you will refinance before it changes. Nobody can promise rates will be lower then.

If you have a home equity line of credit, watch for the prime rate increase on your next statement. Most lines charge the prime rate, a benchmark rate banks use, plus or minus a set amount your lender chose. Prime moved to 7.00 percent on September 17.

One steady number underneath all of this. Homeowners with a mortgage hold about $11.7 trillion in equity they could borrow against, about 1 percent more than a year earlier. That is a national total and says nothing about any one house. It is not a reason to borrow. It is a reason not to panic. Borrowing against your home means the lender can foreclose if the payments stop.

Every rate named here is a published national average or benchmark from the dated sources on this page. None of them is an offer, a quote, or a rate anyone is being offered.

The week in rates

30 year fixed conventional7.03%Up 0.08 percentage pointsLast week 6.95%
15 year fixed conventional6.42%Up 0.16 percentage pointsLast week 6.26%
10 year Treasury5.11%Up 0.10 percentage pointsLast week 5.01%

Source Freddie Mac PMMS national averages, Sep 24 2026, and the 10 year Treasury constant maturity via FRED, series DGS10, Sep 23 2026, the most recent value published. These are published national benchmark and average rates from the sources named above. They are not an offer, not a quote, and not a rate anyone is being offered by anyone, including me.

The 30 and 15 year numbers come from Freddie Mac's weekly survey, which averages the rates on home purchase applications that lenders across the country submit to Freddie Mac. The survey looks at one kind of borrower. That borrower is buying a home with 20 percent down and excellent credit. The loan is not backed by a government program such as FHA or VA, and it is within the standard loan size limit. Your own rate depends on your credit, your down payment, the size of your loan and more. Use these as a read on the market, not as the rate you should expect.

The 10 year Treasury yield is the return investors get on 10 year US government bonds. Mortgage rates tend to rise and fall with it, which is why it is worth watching.

The 10 year Treasury was at 5.11 percent on Wednesday September 23, up from 5.01 percent a week earlier. It was not a steady climb. It dipped as low as 4.94 during the week, then jumped 0.15 in a single day, from 4.96 on Tuesday to 5.11 on Wednesday. That is its highest level since July 2007. This is the Treasury's daily yield, published the next day.

The prime rate, which home equity lines follow

Prime rate7.00%

Source Bank prime loan rate, FRED series DPRIME, 7.00 percent effective September 17 2026, latest observation September 21 2026. These are published national benchmark and average rates from the sources named above. They are not an offer, not a quote, and not a rate anyone is being offered by anyone, including me.

The prime rate is 7.00 percent, the same as last week. It rose from 6.75 percent on September 17, the day after the Federal Reserve raised the short term rate it controls.

Most home equity lines of credit are priced at prime plus an amount the lender adds. If your line has a balance, expect the increase on a statement in the next few weeks. It usually starts with your next bill. When that statement arrives, check the rate on it rather than assuming.

A line with a minimum rate already above the new level may not move. A line with a cap on how far its rate can rise may move less. A balance you have already converted to a fixed rate does not move at all. A fixed rate home equity loan does not change, and neither does a fixed rate first mortgage.

The Fed's rate committee does not meet again until October 27 and 28, so prime is unlikely to move before then. That is a reading of the calendar, not a promise.

I do not publish an average rate for home equity loans or lines of credit. Each lender prices them differently, and published averages disagree widely depending on the borrower they assume. Prime is different. It is one published benchmark, the same everywhere. The amount your lender adds on top still varies, and the only honest way to know your own number is to have a lender work it up on your actual loan.

Every rate named here is a published national average or benchmark from the dated sources on this page. None of them is an offer, a quote, or a rate anyone is being offered.

Who applied for mortgages

The Mortgage Bankers Association tracks mortgage applications every week through a survey of lenders. Most of these numbers are shown after adjusting for normal seasonal swings, like slower holiday weeks. That makes one week fairer to compare with the next.

All applicationsDown 1.5%

All mortgage applications were down 1.5 percent for the week after adjusting for normal seasonal swings, and up 9 percent before that adjustment. The week before contained Labor Day, so the bounce in the unadjusted number largely reflects the return to a full five business day week. Adjustable rate loans, where the rate can change after an opening period, rose to 9.8 percent of applications from 8.4 percent. The average rate on these applications for a 30 year fixed loan within the standard size limit was 7.12 percent, up from 6.97 percent, which the Mortgage Bankers Association called the highest since May 2024. That rate comes from a different survey and covers the week ending September 18. Compare it with Freddie Mac's 6.95 percent from that week, not this week's 7.03.

To buy a homeDown 1%

Applications to buy a home were down 1 percent for the week after adjusting for normal seasonal swings, and 11 percent below the same week in 2025 before that adjustment. This is the first clean comparison with last year since Labor Day. Last week's gap was 19 percent, and a large part of that was the holiday. So the year over year picture is better than last week's headline, but buying applications are still clearly lower than a year ago.

To refinanceDown 3%

Applications to refinance were down 3 percent for the week and 62 percent below the same week a year ago. In the same survey week a year ago, Freddie Mac's average 30 year rate was 6.26 percent and refinancing was busy, so that comparison is against a strong week. Refinances made up 39.3 percent of all applications, down from 39.4 percent.

Source MBA Weekly Applications Survey, week ending Sep 18 2026, released Sep 23 2026. Weekly changes are after adjusting for normal seasonal swings unless stated otherwise, while the refinance and adjustable shares are not, so the numbers will not add up exactly. All figures are the MBA's, as publicly reported. Any rate or share named in this section is a published national average of applications already taken. These are published national benchmark and average rates from the sources named above. They are not an offer, not a quote, and not a rate anyone is being offered by anyone, including me.

How households are doing

These numbers change slowly. They show how much equity, debt and savings American households have, which shapes what options make sense for a homeowner. Each one shows its own date because they are updated on different schedules.

$11.7 trillion in home equity to borrow against, up about 1 percent from a year earlier

Equity is what a home is worth minus what is still owed on it. Homeowners with a mortgage hold $18 trillion of it in total, up from $17.8 trillion a year earlier. ICE, which tracks mortgage data, counts $11.7 trillion of that as the part homeowners could borrow and still keep 20 percent of their home's value, up from $11.6 trillion a year earlier. So there is a little more to borrow against in total than a year ago. About 47.5 million homeowners with a mortgage have equity they could borrow against, roughly the same number as a year earlier. It is not spread evenly, so your own home's equity depends on its value and what you owe.

ICE Mortgage Monitor, August 2026 and August 2025, as of Q2 2026, compared with Q2 2025

Two thirds of the main mortgages people already have carry a rate under 5 percent

Of the main mortgages people already have, not counting home equity loans or other second loans, 66.7 percent carry a rate under 5 percent and 49.9 percent are under 4 percent. About 22 percent, a little more than 1 in 5, carry a rate of 6 percent or higher.

Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Mortgage Database, as of the first quarter of 2026, released June 26 2026, the latest available as of September 24 2026

Homeowners insurance is 9.6 percent of the average monthly mortgage payment

Insurance costs rose 8.7 percent over the past year. That is still a rise, but a slower one. The yearly rise peaked at 15.1 percent at the end of 2024, and the 1.8 percent rise in the second quarter was the smallest since ICE started tracking it. Homeowners who switched from one private insurer to another cut their monthly insurance payments 6.6 percent on average, a record. Those who stayed with their insurer paid 10.4 percent more. Those are two different groups, so your own result may differ. Insurance ranges from 24.3 percent of the payment in New Orleans to 4.3 percent in San Jose.

ICE Mortgage Monitor, September 2026 report, released Sep 10 2026, as of the second quarter of 2026

$1.26 trillion in credit card balances nationwide

This counts every card balance, including people who pay theirs off in full each month, so not all of it is being charged interest.

New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report, Q2 2026, as of Q2 2026, released Aug 11 2026

20.94 percent average credit card interest rate

The average across all commercial bank credit card accounts, about three times the average 30 year mortgage rate. The real gap is smaller for someone thinking about using home equity to pay off cards, because a second mortgage usually carries a higher rate than a first mortgage.

Federal Reserve G.19, FRED series TERMCBCCALLNS, as of May 2026

$8,000 is the typical balance in household checking and savings

This is the median, meaning the household in the middle, across checking, savings and money market accounts for households that have them. The average is $62,410, much higher, because a small number of very large balances pull it up.

Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances, as of 2022 survey, the last full survey released

$155,800 average 401k balance, a record

The average across 401k plans Fidelity administers, up 13.1 percent from a year earlier. More people are also taking money out: 3 percent of participants took a hardship withdrawal, meaning they took money out early because of a serious financial need, up from 2.6 percent a year ago. And 19.5 percent have a loan against their 401k.

Fidelity Q2 2026 Retirement Analysis, as of Q2 2026, reported Sep 3 2026

$459 billion owed on home equity lines of credit

Money homeowners have borrowed against their equity with a line of credit, a second loan that leaves their main mortgage in place.

New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report, Q2 2026, as of Q2 2026

55 percent of the equity homeowners took out came through a second loan

Homeowners took out $54 billion of equity in the second quarter. Home equity loans and lines of credit, which sit behind the main mortgage, accounted for $29.5 billion of it, down 3 percent from a year earlier. Cash out refinances, which replace the main mortgage with a bigger one, accounted for $24.3 billion. Both kinds of loan are secured by the home, so the lender can foreclose if the payments stop.

ICE Mortgage Monitor, September 2026 report, released Sep 10 2026, as of the second quarter of 2026

Every figure above is a published national aggregate from the source named beside it. Any rate shown here, including the credit card average, is a national average and not an offer, a quote, or a rate anyone is being offered.

For loan officers

This part is written for loan officers. If you own a home or are buying one, it is still worth reading, because it shows the kind of conversation a good loan officer should be having with you.

  • The average crossed 7, so call every client in process who has not locked, before the headline calls them

    Freddie Mac's 30 year average is 7.03 percent, up from 6.95 last week and 6.76 two weeks ago. It is the first week at or above 7 since January 2025. The 10 year Treasury hit 5.11 percent on Wednesday, its highest since July 2007.

    The move this week was smaller than last week's. But 7 is the number that will be on the evening news, and a client who has not locked will hear it from someone. It should be you.

    Keep the call short and factual. Rates rose again. Here is what it would cost to lock today. Here is what it would cost to extend the lock if closing slips. Know your company's extension cost and whether it offers a float down before you dial. A float down can let a locked loan take a lower rate if pricing improves, under your company's conditions.

    Do not tell anyone that rates will keep rising. Nobody knows that. What you can say is that the Fed's own forecasts, published last week, point to its short term rate going up rather than down by year end. That is a forecast of the Fed's rate, not of mortgage rates, and forecasts have been wrong before. Some clients will still choose to wait. That is fine when it is a real choice made with the facts.

    Make it concrete. Run their loan amount in the mortgage payment calculator at what they were quoted and again a quarter of a percentage point higher, so they decide against a number instead of a feeling. Follow your compliance team's rules for contacting applicants.

    Every rate named here is a published national average or benchmark from the dated sources on this page. None of them is an offer, a quote, or a rate anyone is being offered.

  • Adjustable rate applications jumped to 9.8 percent, so get ahead of the question honestly

    Adjustable rate loans rose to 9.8 percent of all applications last week, up from 8.4 percent the week before. When fixed rates climb, clients start asking about the lower starting rate on an adjustable loan. Expect that question this week.

    Here is the honest comparison, from the same survey in the same week. The Mortgage Bankers Association's average rate on applications was 7.12 percent for a 30 year fixed loan within the standard size limit. For a 5/1 adjustable loan it was 6.10 percent. A 5/1 loan is fixed for five years, then can change once a year. That is a real gap. It is also a gap that exists because the borrower takes on the risk of what happens in year six.

    So walk the client through three numbers before anyone talks about the starting rate. How much the rate can rise at the first change. How much it can rise at each later adjustment, and how often those adjustments happen, since many adjustable loans today reset every six months, not every year. And the highest it can ever go under the loan's terms. Then ask the client one plain question. Could you carry the payment at that highest rate? If the answer is no, the adjustable loan is the wrong loan, however good the starting rate looks.

    Never sell an adjustable loan on the promise that the client can refinance before it changes. That is a bet on future rates, and nobody can make it for them. It can make sense for someone who expects to sell or pay the loan down well inside the fixed period, and who could still handle the worst case if plans change.

    Point clients to the fixed versus adjustable rate guide on this site before the call. Tell them the averages above are survey averages, and that their own rate on either loan depends on their credit, their down payment and the property. Follow your compliance team's rules for contacting clients and applicants.

    Every rate named here is a published national average or benchmark from the dated sources on this page. None of them is an offer, a quote, or a rate anyone is being offered.

  • Buying applications are 11 percent below last year in a clean week, so send your agents the honest number

    Last week the headline was a 19 percent drop in buying applications from a year earlier. A large part of that was Labor Day, because this year's week had four business days against last year's five.

    This week there is no holiday in either year. Buying applications were 11 percent below the same week last year before seasonal adjustment. Week over week, after adjusting for normal seasonal swings, they fell 1 percent. Keep those two numbers straight. The 11 percent is a comparison with last year that has not been adjusted. The 1 percent is a weekly change that has been. The survey publishes no adjusted year over year figure.

    That 11 percent is the honest number, and it cuts both ways. It is much better than last week's 19. It is still a clear drop, and it came in a week when the survey's own average rate reached 7.12 percent. Do not tell an agent the market is fine. Do not tell them it is collapsing either.

    Send your agents and builder contacts a short note. Buying applications are down 11 percent from a year ago in the first clean comparison since the holiday. Rates are near 7 percent. And you are available to rerun any buyer's numbers at today's rates.

    Then do the rerunning. Put the buyer's real numbers into the affordability calculator with them on the phone, including an actual homeowners insurance quote. Insurance is now 9.6 percent of the average monthly mortgage payment, and buyers who skip it can be surprised by the full payment. Never show an agent a real borrower's numbers without that borrower's permission. Follow your compliance team's rules before contacting past applicants.

    Every rate named here is a published national average or benchmark from the dated sources on this page. None of them is an offer, a quote, or a rate anyone is being offered.

  • At 7 percent, replacing a cheap first mortgage makes even less sense, so lead with the blended rate

    Of the main mortgages people already have, 66.7 percent carry a rate under 5 percent and 49.9 percent are under 4 percent. With the survey average now at 7.03 percent, replacing any of those mortgages with a bigger one to take cash out means trading cheap money for expensive money on the whole balance.

    The need for cash has not gone away. Homeowners with a mortgage hold about $11.7 trillion in equity they could borrow against, about 1 percent more than the $11.6 trillion a year earlier. The average card rate was 20.94 percent in the Federal Reserve's May figure. In the second quarter, 55 percent of the equity homeowners took out came through a second loan rather than a new first mortgage.

    So start with the blended rate calculator using the client's real balances. It shows what all of their borrowing costs together, and it usually shows the first mortgage is the cheapest money they have. Then compare a second loan in the home equity loan comparison, so the client sees the lower monthly cost next to the longer payoff, and sees that the debt is now tied to the house. A card is not secured by the home. A second mortgage is, and if the payments stop the lender can foreclose. Say that plainly.

    The second loan is not automatically the answer either. Prime rose to 7.00 percent last week, so a line of credit priced from prime costs more than it did. Plenty of these conversations should end with a budget and no new loan. Say so, even when a loan would pay you more.

    Before you pull or screen a list of past clients or past applicants, get the list and the wording approved by your compliance team. Do Not Call rules, telephone consumer protection rules and commercial email rules can all apply, and so can credit reporting rules if the screening uses credit or debt information.

    Every rate named here is a published national average or benchmark from the dated sources on this page. None of them is an offer, a quote, or a rate anyone is being offered.

What to watch next

Next week has the two reports most likely to move rates before the Fed meets again.

On Wednesday September 30 at 8:30 Eastern, the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Income and Outlays report for August. It contains the PCE price index, the inflation measure the Fed says it watches most closely. The final estimate of second quarter economic growth comes out at the same time.

On Friday October 2 at 8:30 Eastern, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the jobs report for September. A strong jobs number or hot inflation tends to push bond yields and mortgage rates up. Weak numbers tend to do the opposite. Neither is guaranteed.

The Mortgage Bankers Association publishes application numbers on Wednesday, and Freddie Mac's rate survey comes out Thursday October 1.

The Fed's rate committee meets next on October 27 and 28.

Loan officers, check current pricing before your calls each morning. With the 10 year jumping 0.15 in a single day this week, yesterday's rates are not today's.

Where the numbers come from

Rates are the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey national averages published Sep 24 2026, via FRED series MORTGAGE30US and MORTGAGE15US, and the 10 year Treasury constant maturity via FRED, series DGS10, Sep 23 2026, the Treasury's daily yield, published the next day. The claim that 7.03 is the first 30 year reading at or above 7 percent since January 2025 was checked against the FRED MORTGAGE30US series, where the last such reading is 7.04 on Jan 16 2025. The claim that 6.42 is the highest 15 year reading since May 2024 was checked against MORTGAGE15US, where the last higher reading is 6.47 on May 2 2024. The claim that 5.11 is the highest 10 year reading since July 2007 was checked against the full DGS10 series back to 2000, where the last reading at that level is Jul 13 2007. The year ago 30 year average of 6.30 percent is the Freddie Mac reading for Sep 25 2025 via FRED, and the year ago rate of 6.26 percent in the refinance note is the reading for Sep 18 2025, matching the MBA survey week. The prime rate is FRED series DPRIME, 7.00 percent effective Sep 17 2026. Application figures, the refinance and adjustable shares and the average contract rates of 7.12 percent for a 30 year fixed loan and 6.10 percent for a 5/1 adjustable loan are the Mortgage Bankers Association weekly survey for the week ending Sep 18 2026, released Sep 23 2026, as publicly reported; the description of 7.12 as the highest since May 2024 is the MBA's own. The Fed's forecasts referred to are the Summary of Economic Projections released Sep 16 2026. The share of equity taken out through second loans, 55 percent in the second quarter of 2026, is from the ICE Mortgage Monitor for September 2026, released Sep 10 2026, pages 6 and 7. Household figures are from the New York Fed, the Federal Reserve, FHFA, ICE and Fidelity, each dated in the list above. Release dates and times in the week ahead were checked this week against the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics schedules; the Fed meeting dates are from the Federal Reserve's published calendar. This brief is educational market commentary. It is not an offer of credit, not a quote, not a commitment to lend, and not financial, tax, or legal advice. Figures are national aggregates and say nothing about what any individual borrower qualifies for.