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Market Brief Issue 11Week of October 26, 2026

Freddie Mac's average 30 year rate fell again, to 7.24 percent, and the Fed held steady

Published Sunday November 1, 2026

These are published national benchmark and average rates from the dated sources on this page. They are not an offer, not a quote, and not a rate anyone is being offered by anyone, including me.

Mortgage rates fell for the second week in a row. Freddie Mac's weekly survey puts the average 30 year fixed rate at 7.24 percent, down from 7.32 percent. The 15 year average fell to 6.60 percent from 6.68 percent. A year ago the 30 year average was 6.17 percent, so it is still more than a full percentage point higher. Freddie Mac's 30 year average is the number this brief tracks week to week. Every rate named here is a published national average or benchmark from the dated sources on this page. None of them is an offer, a quote, or a rate anyone is being offered.

The Federal Reserve met this week and left its short term rate alone. The vote was 10 to 2, and the two who disagreed wanted to raise it. So the Fed did not cut, and two of its members still want to raise its rate again.

The 10 year Treasury is the interest rate on 10 year US government bonds. Mortgage rates tend to follow it. It was 4.98 percent on Thursday, almost exactly where it was a week earlier. All week it stayed between 4.96 and 5.05 percent.

The Fed's preferred inflation measure came out Thursday morning. Prices in September were 3.6 percent higher than a year earlier. Leaving out food and energy, which jump around, they were 3.1 percent higher. The Fed's goal is 2 percent, so inflation is still well above it.

Applications picked up in the same week rates eased. The Mortgage Bankers Association's deputy chief economist said the lower rates gave borrowers some relief. In the Mortgage Bankers Association survey, total applications rose 3.4 percent for the week ending October 23, the first rise after four weekly drops. Applications to buy a home rose 4 percent, but they were still 18 percent below a year ago. The weekly figures are after adjusting for normal seasonal swings.

What to do this week if you own a home or are buying one

If you have applied and have not locked your rate, two down weeks are good news but not a promise. Locking means the lender agrees to hold your rate for a set number of days while your loan closes. The Fed held this week, but two of its members wanted a rate increase, and inflation is still running well above its goal. Call your loan officer and ask what it costs to lock today, and what it costs in dollars to extend the lock if closing slips.

If you are only shopping, do not treat 7.24 percent as your number. It is a national average for one kind of borrower. That borrower has excellent credit, 20 percent down, and a standard size loan not backed by a government program. Your own rate depends on your credit, your down payment, your loan size, and the property.

If a lender offers you an adjustable rate loan, ask for the fees in dollars. In the Mortgage Bankers Association survey, the average adjustable loan came with more upfront charges than the average 30 year fixed loan. A lower starting rate is not always the cheaper loan.

If you are buying, applications to buy picked up this week but are still 18 percent below a year ago. That is a national count. It does not tell you how many buyers want the home you want. Run your actual savings, debts and an insurance quote through the affordability calculator before you make an offer.

If you are thinking about using home equity to pay off credit cards, look at both sides. The average card rate was 21.19 percent in August, the newest Federal Reserve reading. But a home equity loan puts that debt on your house. Run your real balances through the blended rate calculator before you talk to a lender.

Every rate named here is a published national average or benchmark from the dated sources on this page. None of them is an offer, a quote, or a rate anyone is being offered.

The week in rates

30 year fixed conventional7.24%Down 0.08 percentage pointsLast week 7.32%
15 year fixed conventional6.60%Down 0.08 percentage pointsLast week 6.68%
10 year Treasury4.98%Up 0.02 percentage pointsLast week 4.96%

Source Freddie Mac PMMS national averages, Oct 29 2026, and the 10 year Treasury yield published by the US Treasury for Oct 29 2026, the same figure the St. Louis Fed's FRED database carries. These are published national benchmark and average rates from the sources named above. They are not an offer, not a quote, and not a rate anyone is being offered by anyone, including me.

The 30 and 15 year numbers come from Freddie Mac's weekly survey, which averages the rates on home purchase applications that lenders across the country submit to Freddie Mac. The survey looks at one kind of borrower. That borrower is buying a home with 20 percent down and excellent credit. The loan is not backed by a government program such as FHA or VA, and it is within the standard loan size limit. Your own rate depends on your credit, your down payment, the size of your loan and more. Use these as a read on the market, not as the rate you should expect.

The 10 year Treasury yield is the return investors get on 10 year US government bonds. Mortgage rates tend to rise and fall with it, which is why it is worth watching.

The 10 year Treasury was at 4.98 percent on Thursday October 29, against 4.96 percent on Thursday October 22, up 0.02 percentage points. In between it stayed in a narrow range, from 4.96 to 5.05 percent.

The prime rate, which home equity lines follow

Prime rate7.00%

Source Bank prime loan rate via FRED, series DPRIME, 7.00 percent in the latest value posted, Oct 27 2026, unchanged since it moved from 6.75 percent effective Sep 17 2026. Federal Reserve policy statement, Oct 28 2026. These are published national benchmark and average rates from the sources named above. They are not an offer, not a quote, and not a rate anyone is being offered by anyone, including me.

The prime rate is still 7.00 percent. It has not moved since September 17.

On Wednesday October 28, the Federal Reserve left its short term rate where it was, at 3.75 to 4 percent. That Fed rate is a target range for what banks charge each other to borrow overnight. It is not a mortgage rate, but many loan rates follow it. The vote was 10 to 2. The two who voted no wanted another increase.

Prime is the rate most large US banks post. It usually moves only when the Fed moves, and the Fed did not move this week. Most home equity lines of credit are priced at prime plus an amount the lender sets. A line of credit lets you borrow as you need it, and its rate usually moves with prime. A home equity loan is a lump sum, usually at a fixed rate.

So if you have a line of credit, the published rate it follows did not change this week. A fixed rate home equity loan or a fixed rate main mortgage you already have does not change either. The Fed's next meeting is December 8 and 9.

I do not publish an average rate for home equity loans or lines of credit. Each lender prices them differently, and published averages disagree widely depending on the borrower they assume. Prime is one published benchmark, the same at most large banks. The amount your lender adds on top of it still varies. The only honest way to know your own number is to ask a lender for a written estimate on your actual loan.

Every rate named here is a published national average or benchmark from the dated sources on this page. None of them is an offer, a quote, or a rate anyone is being offered.

Who applied for mortgages

The Mortgage Bankers Association tracks mortgage applications every week through a survey of lenders. Most of these numbers are shown after adjusting for normal seasonal swings, like slower holiday weeks. That makes one week fairer to compare with the next.

All applicationsUp 3.4%

All mortgage applications were up 3.4 percent for the week after adjusting for normal seasonal swings, and up 3 percent before that adjustment. It is the first weekly rise after four drops in a row. Adjustable rate loans, where the rate can change after an opening period, rose to 11.3 percent of applications, the highest share in more than a year. The association's own average for a 30 year fixed loan fell to 7.37 percent from 7.41 percent, its second weekly drop in a row. That is a different survey from Freddie Mac's, so do not compare the two directly.

To buy a homeUp 4%

Applications to buy a home were up 4 percent for the week after adjusting for normal seasonal swings, and up 3 percent before that adjustment. They were still 18 percent below the same week in 2025.

To refinanceUp 3%

Applications to refinance were up 3 percent for the week, as the association reported it, and 61 percent below the same week a year ago. Refinances made up 38.9 percent of all applications, about the same as the 39.0 percent a week earlier.

Source MBA Weekly Applications Survey, week ending Oct 23 2026, released Oct 28 2026, the total and purchase week over week figures are after adjusting for normal seasonal swings; the refinance change and all year over year comparisons are as reported, before that adjustment. The refinance and adjustable rate shares are shares of all applications that week and are not adjusted for seasonal swings, as publicly reported. Any rate or share named in this section is a published national average of applications already taken. These are published national benchmark and average rates from the sources named above. They are not an offer, not a quote, and not a rate anyone is being offered by anyone, including me.

How households are doing

These numbers change slowly. They show how much equity, debt and savings American households have, which shapes what options make sense for a homeowner. Each one shows its own date because they are updated on different schedules.

$11.7 trillion in home equity to borrow against, up about 1 percent from a year earlier

Equity is what a home is worth minus what is still owed on it. Homeowners with a mortgage hold $18 trillion of it in total, up from $17.8 trillion a year earlier. ICE, which tracks mortgage data, counts $11.7 trillion of that as the part homeowners could borrow and still keep 20 percent of their home's value as equity. A year earlier it was $11.6 trillion. So there is a little more to borrow against in total than a year ago. About 47.5 million homeowners with a mortgage have equity they could borrow against, roughly the same number as a year earlier. It is not spread evenly, so your own home's equity depends on its value and what you owe.

ICE Mortgage Monitor, August 2026 and August 2025, as of Q2 2026, compared with Q2 2025

About two thirds of the main mortgages people already have carry a rate under 5 percent

This counts only main mortgages, not home equity loans or other second loans. Of those, 65.6 percent carry a rate under 5 percent, and 49.1 percent are under 4 percent. About 22.5 percent, a little more than 1 in 5, carry a rate of 6 percent or higher, up from 20.2 percent a year earlier.

Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Mortgage Database, as of the second quarter of 2026, released September 30 2026, compared with the second quarter of 2025

Homeowners insurance is 9.6 percent of the average monthly mortgage payment

Insurance costs rose 8.7 percent over the past year. That is still an increase, but a slower one. The yearly increase was 11.4 percent at the start of 2026 and peaked at 15.1 percent at the end of 2024. The 1.8 percent rise in the second quarter was the smallest since ICE started tracking it. Homeowners who shopped and switched insurers cut their premiums 6.6 percent, a record. Those who stayed paid 10.4 percent more. The two groups are not alike, so that gap is not a promise of what switching saves you. Insurance ranges from 24.3 percent of the payment in New Orleans to 4.3 percent in San Jose.

ICE Mortgage Monitor, September 2026 edition, as of the second quarter of 2026, in the edition released Sep 10 2026

$1.26 trillion in credit card balances nationwide

This counts every card balance, including people who pay theirs off in full each month, so not all of it is being charged interest.

New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report, Q2 2026, as of Q2 2026, released Aug 11 2026

21.19 percent average credit card interest rate

The average across all commercial bank credit card accounts, up from 20.94 percent in the May reading. For someone using home equity to pay off cards, the real gap is smaller. A second loan against the home usually carries a higher rate than the main mortgage. This is a national average, not an offer or a quote.

Federal Reserve G.19, FRED series TERMCBCCALLNS, as of August 2026, released Oct 7 2026

$8,200 is the typical family's balance in checking and savings

This is the median, meaning the family in the middle, among families with checking, savings, money market or similar accounts. After adjusting for inflation, that is 6 percent less than in 2022. The average is $62,900, much higher, because a small number of very large balances pull it up.

Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances, Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2022 to 2025, as of 2025 survey, released Oct 9 2026, in 2025 dollars

$155,800 average 401k balance, a record

The average across 401k plans Fidelity administers, up 13.1 percent from a year earlier. More people are also taking money out. 3 percent of participants took a hardship withdrawal, up from 2.6 percent a year ago. That means taking money out early because of a serious financial need. And 19.5 percent have a loan against their 401k.

Fidelity Q2 2026 Retirement Analysis, as of Q2 2026, reported Sep 3 2026

$459 billion owed on home equity lines of credit

Money homeowners have borrowed against their equity with a line of credit, usually a second loan that leaves their main mortgage in place.

New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report, Q2 2026, as of Q2 2026, released Aug 11 2026

55 percent of the equity homeowners took out came through a second loan

Nearly 548,000 homeowners took out a combined $54 billion in equity in the second quarter. About $29.5 billion came through home equity loans and lines of credit, which sit behind the main mortgage and leave it in place. The other $24.3 billion came through cash out refinances, which replace the main mortgage with a bigger one. By ICE's count, that was the strongest quarter for cash out refinances in nearly four years.

ICE Mortgage Monitor, September 2026 edition, released Sep 10 2026, as of Q2 2026

Every figure above is a published national aggregate from the source named beside it. Any rate shown here, including the credit card average, is a national average and not an offer, a quote, or a rate anyone is being offered.

For loan officers

This part is written for loan officers. If you own a home or are buying one, it is still worth reading, because it shows the kind of conversation a good loan officer should be having with you.

  • Rates fell two weeks in a row and the Fed held, so reach every unlocked client this week

    Freddie Mac's national average fell to 7.24 percent this week, from 7.32 percent last week and 7.40 percent the week before. The Mortgage Bankers Association's average also fell, to 7.37 percent for the week ending October 23. It measures a different group of loans in a different way, so do not compare the two directly.

    The Fed held its rate on October 28. That removes one risk for now, but not all of it. Two of the twelve voters wanted an increase. And Thursday's inflation report showed prices up 3.6 percent from a year earlier, well above the Fed's 2 percent goal. The next tests are the jobs report on November 6 and the consumer price report on November 10. Nobody can tell your client which way those go.

    So call every client in process who has not locked. Check with your compliance team first, because Do Not Call and similar rules can apply. Have two numbers ready: what it costs to lock today, and what your company charges to extend a lock if closing slips.

    Make it concrete in the mortgage payment calculator. Run their loan amount at the rate they were quoted. Then run it again half a percentage point higher. Freddie Mac's average rose about that much in three weeks this fall, from 6.95 percent on September 17 to 7.40 percent on October 8. Let them decide with a real number in front of them.

    If a client chooses to wait, note it in the file with the date and the cost to lock you quoted.

    Every rate named here is a published national average or benchmark from the dated sources on this page. None of them is an offer, a quote, or a rate anyone is being offered.

  • Adjustable rate loans hit their highest share in more than a year, so show the extra points in dollars

    Adjustable rate loans rose to 11.3 percent of all applications for the week ending October 23, in the Mortgage Bankers Association survey. That is the highest share in more than a year, which suggests more borrowers are reaching for a lower starting rate.

    Points are charges paid at closing, each one 1 percent of the loan amount. In that survey, the 30 year fixed average was 7.37 percent with 0.76 points. The average for a 5/1 adjustable loan was 6.41 percent with 1.20 points, up from 1.11 points a week earlier. A 5/1 loan keeps its starting rate for five years, then can change once a year.

    So the average adjustable loan carried 0.44 more points than the average fixed loan. These averages cover different groups of borrowers, so they do not tell you what any one client would pay.

    When a client asks, compare the two using your company's current rates on the same day, with the points shown in dollars. Then ask how long they expect to keep the loan. Someone who plans to sell within five years may never see the rate change, but plans change. Someone counting on a refinance later is betting that rates fall.

    Run both rates through the mortgage payment calculator. Then take the caps from the adjustable rate disclosure for the loan you are offering. Run the rate again at the highest level the first change allows, and again at the lifetime cap. On some 5/1 loans the first change alone can be up to 5 percentage points.

    Every rate named here is a published national average or benchmark from the dated sources on this page. None of them is an offer, a quote, or a rate anyone is being offered.

  • Buyers came back a little, up 4 percent, so lead with cash and comfort, not the rate

    In the Mortgage Bankers Association survey, applications to buy a home rose 4 percent for the week ending October 23, after adjusting for normal seasonal swings. That is a small bounce. They were still 18 percent below the same week a year ago.

    So the buyers who are moving now are worth extra care. A rate that fell 0.08 percentage points this week will not change their life. What sinks a purchase is usually the cash at closing, or a monthly payment that looked fine on paper and feels tight in real life.

    The Fed's newest survey of family finances says the typical family with checking, savings or similar accounts keeps $8,200 in them. That covers all families with those accounts, not just buyers. But it is a reminder of how thin savings can be once the down payment, closing costs and a cushion come out.

    On the first call, ask where the down payment and closing money will come from, and how much will be left after. Put their real savings, debts and insurance quote into the affordability calculator with them on the phone. Ask what monthly payment they are comfortable with, not just what they qualify for.

    When an agent sends you a buyer, never share that buyer's numbers with the agent without the buyer's permission. If you have preapproved buyers who stopped looking, a bounce like this is a reason to check in. Before you call them, check with your compliance team, because Do Not Call, telephone consumer protection and commercial email rules can apply.

    Every rate named here is a published national average or benchmark from the dated sources on this page. None of them is an offer, a quote, or a rate anyone is being offered.

  • Refinances are 61 percent below a year ago, so the useful talk is card debt, and the risk to the house

    Refinance applications rose 3 percent for the week ending October 23 but were 61 percent below a year ago, in the Mortgage Bankers Association survey. The association's deputy chief economist said most borrowers have little to gain from refinancing right now.

    Federal data for the second quarter of 2026 says 65.6 percent of the main mortgages people already have carry a rate under 5 percent. About 22.5 percent carry 6 percent or higher. Only the actual rate on the file tells you who sits above Freddie Mac's 7.24 percent average.

    The better conversation is about card debt. The Federal Reserve's newest reading puts the average credit card rate at 21.19 percent for August.

    Start with the blended rate calculator using the client's real balances. If their main mortgage rate is well under that average, it is the cheap money and usually worth keeping. Then take a rate your company offers today and run a second loan through the home equity loan comparison. It shows whether the monthly cost goes down, and how much longer the debt now runs against the house.

    A credit card is not secured by the home. A second mortgage is, and if the payments stop, the lender can foreclose. Some of these talks should end with no new loan.

    Before you pull a list of past clients or applicants, get the list and the wording approved by your compliance team. Do not use a credit report pulled for an earlier loan to decide who to call. Choosing who to contact by credit or debt brings in federal credit reporting rules on top of Do Not Call and email rules. It can require a real offer of credit to everyone on the list.

    Every rate named here is a published national average or benchmark from the dated sources on this page. None of them is an offer, a quote, or a rate anyone is being offered.

What to watch next

Next week is about jobs, and the week after brings inflation.

On Tuesday November 3 at 10:00 Eastern, the government reports September job openings.

On Wednesday November 4, the Mortgage Bankers Association releases its weekly application numbers. On Thursday November 5, Freddie Mac's rate survey comes out.

On Friday November 6 at 8:30 Eastern, the October jobs report comes out. A much stronger or weaker job market than expected can move rates that day.

On Tuesday November 10 at 8:30 Eastern, the October consumer price report comes out. That is the government's main measure of how fast prices are rising.

The Fed's rate committee does not meet again until December 8 and 9.

Loan officers, check your company's rates before your calls each morning. Two down weeks do not mean rates have settled.

Where the numbers come from

Rates are the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey national average, published Oct 29 2026, confirmed on FRED series MORTGAGE30US and MORTGAGE15US. The prior weeks (7.32 on Oct 22, 7.40 on Oct 15 and Oct 8, 6.95 on Sep 17) were checked against FRED MORTGAGE30US. The year ago 30 year average of 6.17 percent is Freddie Mac's Oct 30 2025 reading. The 10 year Treasury is the constant maturity yield published by the US Treasury in its daily par yield curve, the same series FRED carries as DGS10, a daily yield rather than a closing price: 4.96 on Oct 22, 5.00 on Oct 23 and Oct 26, 4.99 on Oct 27, 5.05 on Oct 28 and 4.98 on Oct 29 2026. FRED had posted through Oct 28 when this issue was finished, and its values match Treasury's. The prime rate is FRED series DPRIME, 7.00 percent in the latest posted value, Oct 27 2026. The Fed's decision, vote and dissents are from the Federal Reserve policy statement of Oct 28 2026, and the Dec 8 and 9 meeting dates are from the Federal Reserve's meeting calendar. Inflation figures are the Bureau of Economic Analysis personal income and outlays report for September 2026, released Oct 29 2026. Application figures, the refinance and adjustable shares, the association's 30 year and 5/1 adjustable averages with points, and its deputy chief economist's comments are the Mortgage Bankers Association weekly survey for the week ending Oct 23 2026, released Oct 28 2026, as published in MBA Newslink. Household checking and savings figures are the Federal Reserve's 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances, released Oct 9 2026, in 2025 dollars. The average credit card rate is Federal Reserve G.19 via FRED series TERMCBCCALLNS, August 2026. The share of existing mortgages by rate is the Federal Housing Finance Agency National Mortgage Database for the second quarter of 2026, released Sep 30 2026. Other household figures are from the New York Fed, ICE and Fidelity, each dated in the list above. The Nov 3 job openings, Nov 6 jobs report and Nov 10 consumer price dates are the Bureau of Labor Statistics release schedule. This issue went up Sunday November 1 2026, after a publishing delay. It is dated for the Thursday survey it reports, and the 10 year yield is Thursday's value. This brief is educational market commentary. It is not an offer of credit, not a quote, not a commitment to lend, and not financial, tax, or legal advice. Figures are national aggregates and say nothing about what any individual borrower qualifies for.